The 4,200 Project

The Great Salt Lake faces declining water levels primarily due to excessive water use and diminished regional moisture. The Utah Rivers Council’s 4,200 Project proposes actions to address this but misses a deeper issue, the broken water cycle. Here is a strategy to replicate the water cycle to restore moisture sources and combat climate change.

Great Salt Lake as seen from space in at its fullest in 1985 and emptiest in 2022.
Great Salt Lake 1985 vs. 2022.

The Utah Rivers Council is doing excellent work to save the Great Salt Lake. The 4,200 Project is a well laid out plan to aid the Great Salt Lake. The initiative proposes 12 action items which will benefit the Great Salt Lake, and if implemented will surely raise the current level of the lake. Their efforts could be better if only they acknowledged the root cause for the diminishing stream flow and added replicating the hydrologic cycle to the list.

Image of line graph showing the Great Dalt Lake Levels from 1980 thru 2024.

According to Zachary: “The water levels of the Great Salt Lake have been steadily declining since the late 1980’s, driven largely by Northern Utah’s excessive water use which is experienced by the lake as reduced water inflows from increasing upstream water diversions.1

Image of 21-pumps diverting water out of a stream.

Water Inflow.

The Utah Rivers Council is correct that the Great Salt Lake is experiencing “reduced water inflows,” but the answer as to ‘why’ may not be what they think. No doubt that there is increasing “upstream water diversions,” but there is also less water in the streams to divert. This problem is more regional than local. Understand that the root cause has reduced all moisture input to the region, thus water users are drawing more from the streams to compensate for the systematic shortfall.

Image of a snowmelt created stream.

Upstream Water.

The water in the streams comes mostly from the snowpack. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Colorado mountains experienced an annual snowpack shortfall of approximately 15% from 1986 to 1999. According to the Colorado Climate Center, the Colorado mountains have experienced an annual snowpack shortfall of approximately 20% from 2000 to 2023. This shortfall in snowpack, the source for the river water, converts directly into a shortfall of the stream volume, year after year. Surely this accounts for some of the Great Salt Lake surface level decline.    

Snowpack.

The snowpack in the Colorado mountains originates from at least two hydrologic cycles. One from the north through Canada. This water cycle appears healthy and unchanged over the years. Another hydrologic cycle comes from the southeast, up from the Gulf of California and through the Great Basin. This area has been in drought, and mega-drought for multiple decades, so we can presume that this water cycle is diminished. The diminishing snowpack in the Colorado mountains can be seen to be blamed on diminished moisture input from a southern hydrologic water cycle.

Image of a cartoon representation of a hydrologic cycle.

Hydrologic Cycle.

Overly simplified, the southern water cycle is: 1. Gulf or California, MX > 2. Colorado River Delta, Baja, MX > 3. Laguna Salada, Baja, MX > 4. Salton Sea, CA, USA > 5. Great Basin, USA > 6. Great Salt Lake, UT, USA > 7. Colorado Mountains, CO, USA > 8. Colorado River, USA & MX > 9. Colorado River Delta, Baja, MX. >

Dissecting the Water Cycle.

1. Gulf of California, MX.

The warm air over the gulf  collects moisture and carries it north over the Colorado River Delta. The mega drought has not caused a change to the Gulf of California.

Image of a map outlining the Gulf of California.

2. Colorado River Delta, Baja, MX

Since 1935 the Colorado River has mostly stopped flowing to the sea. This occurred for two reasons. During 1935-1941 the Hoover Dam was being filled, creating Lake Mead, blocking the river’s water from the delta. Beginning in 1939 the Colorado River Aqueduct opened and began transporting massive amounts of water to Southern California. For 80+ years approximately 1.5-million-acrefeet per year of freshwater has been removed from the Colorado River Watershed to six major cities: Albuquerque, NM; Denver, CO; Los Angeles, CA; Salt Lake City, UT; San Diego, CA; Santa Fe, NM. These diversions along with other draws have removed all freshwater from the Colorado River before it reaches its delta.

Local-Climate-Change.

Today the Colorado River Delta is mostly dry. The river’s flow ends just before the water enters the Colorado River Delta, 60-miles north of the Gulf of California. The lack of water in the delta over the last 80+ years has changed the Colorado River Delta from a 3,000-sq-mi, verdant, wet-land into a 3,000-sq-mi, dry desert. The delta’s previous features of large wet surface area, sunny hot local temperatures, strong northerly winds, and thirsty air, used to add large amounts of atmosphere moisture into the hydrologic cycle. This local-climate-change has reduced the moisture fed into the hydrologic cycle, thus the water cycle has less moisture to carry northeast.

3. Laguna Salada, Baja, MX.

Technically Laguna Salada is in the Colorado River Delta, but this inland sea is a significant water feature, so it deserves its own mention. In 1999, Laguna Salada was the last part of the delta to become desert. Is it a coincidence that the mega-drought began in 2000?

4. Salton Sea, CA, USA.

The Salton Sea, a terminal inland sea, was formed in 1905 when water from the Colorado River broke free from an irrigation canal and flowed into the Salton Basin. In the 1950s, the Salton Sea was a thriving tourist destination, often referred to as a desert oasis. The surface level of the Salton Sea began to diminish significantly in the 1970s and began to experience significant environmental problems. The reduced surface level is contributing less moisture into the water cycle thus the water cycle has less water to carry north.

Image highlighting and locating the Great Basin.

5. Great Basin, USA.

The Great Basin is an interesting feature of the SW-USA. It is large and encroaches on 8 US States, thus it is great, and it is a watershed with no outlet, thus a basin. It is full of salt deposits; think of the Bonneville Salt Falts and the Great Salt Lake, plus Death Valley is heavily salted. All this salt points to vast quantities of water, but the Great Basin has a moisture deficit. So, where did the water come from? Moisture from the west is blocked by mountains and the Rain-Shadow effect. Moisture from the north seems to end up in the Colorado Mountains instead of the Great Basin. The Great Basin receives most of its moisture from the south, but with the dry Colorado River Delta, dry Laguna Salada and shrinking Salton Sea, not much moisture is progressing north. The great Basin has become dryer over the past 40 years.

6. Great Salt Lake, UT, USA

The Great Salt Lake, a terminal inland sea, is officially part of the Great Basin. There are twenty saline lakes within the Great Basin, but the Great Salt Lake gets most of the headlines. It lies in the northeast corner of the Great Basin and its evaporated moisture travels into the Colorado Mountains. In the last decade there have been fears that the Great Salt Lake would turn to dust. The surface level of the Great Salt Lake has been generally diminishing since 1986. As the lake surface diminishes, the amount of moisture sent northeast also diminishes, which means less snowpack for the Colorado Mountains.

7. Colorado Mountains, CO, USA.

The Colorado Mountains supply the moisture which begin 158 named rivers. It is apparent that the flow of all these rivers has been diminishing since at least 1986. The Colorado mountains collect snow each winter, which is the time-release water for the rivers. The decline in snowpack, the reduction of source for the river water could surely account for some of the reduced water inflows and accompanying surface level decline off the Great Salt Lake. It also sends less water into the Colorado River.

8. Colorado River, USA & Baja, MX.

Historically the Colorado River is accredited with 16-million-acrefeet of flow. In recent years the river is providing more like 14 or 15-million-acrefeet of freshwater, and some of the projections are showing it could go down to 9-million-acrefeet. Approximately, 1/3 of the river flow goes to California, 1/3 of the flow goes to Mexico, and the last 1/3 goes to other cities and farming, leaving the river dry 60 miles north of its historic outlet.

9. Back to the delta.

There is an unwritten natural law which states that: “Removing large quantities of freshwater from its watershed will create unintended consequences; usually negative.”  Draining the river dry, leaving no moisture for the delta is a problem. We have taken too much from nature and have not respected the resource. The mega-drought is the unintended consequence. The review of the data shows that the most likely cause of the decreasing Great Salt Lake levels is the diminishing snowpack caused by the broken hydrologic cycle. So, can this be fixed?

Image displaying a Bono quotation: "We can't fix all problems, but we must fix the ones we can.

Let’s fix the problem.

There are two ways to fix the problem.

1. Stop taking freshwater out of the watershed.

Since approximately 40-million people rely on that freshwater for life and livelihood. They would protest this solution. Alternates sources of freshwater are massively expensive and bring their own ecological problems.

2. Repair the water cycle. 

Without releasing the Colorado River water into the delta, the Colorado River Delta and the water cycle cannot be repaired. The alternative is to replace the diminished moisture input by replicating the lost water cycle. This sounds like a big task; nigh on to impossible, but since humans can break it, humans should be able to fix it. The cost of constructing, operating, and maintaining this project is considerable, but not massive. The funds can be collected from a water-use-fee imposed on those who broke the water cycle, the users of Colorado River water, as they continue to consume the Colorado River water.

Image of the seal of the US Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation.

Because this operation spans multiple US States, it must be coordinated by the US Government. Fortunately, the government already has an agency in place for this: The US Bureau of Reclamation. This type of project is fully within their mission: “The mission of the Bureau of Reclamation is to manage, develop, and protect water and related resources in an environmentally and economically sound manner in the interest of the American public.2  

Image showing the complexity of the hydrologic cycle.

How to replicate the hydrologic cycle.

1. Colorado River Delta > Laguna Salada.

The plan begins with an agreement with Mexico to dredge the Coyote Canal and connect it to the Gulf or California so ocean water can flow into Laguna Salada. The Coyote Canal was installed as a connector between the Colorado River and Laguna Salada. By increasing the length of Coyote Canal, moisture can reach more parts of the desert delta on its way to Laguna Salada, thus providing hydration to more land, and more opportunity to infuse the atmosphere with moisture.

2. Laguna Salada > Salton Sea.

Refilling Laguna Salada will provide an atmosphere moisture generator for the water cycle. Laguna Salada is shallow, warm body of saltwater, with a large surface area, situated in a dry air environment, in virtual wind tunnel of air blowing atmosphere moisture northward. The Coyote Canal can be extended to the Salton Sea. This will be a new 60-mile-long metered-flow canal which must pass through a 150-foot hill. By extending the Coyote Canal past Laguna Salada and into the Salton Sea, Laguna Salada water salinity will be kept stable near the ocean salinity level.

3. Salton Sea > Great Basin.

Increasing the surface level of the Salton Sea will provide moisture for the water cycle. The Salton Sea is shallow, warm body of saltwater, situated in a dry air environment, with a large surface area making moisture available to the atmospheric moisture flowing northward. The surface level of the Salton Sea can be increased and maintained at its 1950s level by the metered flow of the Coyote Canal. The saltwater entering the Salton Sea will reduce the salinity of the Salton Sea. Over time, the salinity and agricultural pollution of the Salton Sea will be reduced by the flowthrough of water into the Great Basin. This will return it to a habitable place for fish, birds, and people.

Image of pipes running up a mountain side.

4. Great Basin > Great Salt Lake.

The Salton Sea water pumped into the Great Basin will reside in a currently dry depression, where natural processes take over. Once the water is placed within the Great Basin, evaporation will infuse freshwater into the atmosphere and leave behind the salt and pollutants. The natural processes of the water cycle within the Great Basin will move the freshwater around and deposit it into the Great Salt Lake. The surface level of the Great Salt Lake is the gauge which will determine the amount of water imported into the Great Basin.

5. Great Salt Lake > Colorado Mountains.

No human hands are needed for this part. By returning the moisture into the Great Basin and the Great Salt Lake, the original hydrologic cycle will be restored. The Colorado Mountains will be receiving enough moisture to return full flow to all 158 named rivers originating in those mountains.

Image of man in balaclava stealing from Mother Nature.

Conclusion.

We cannot rob Mother Nature without receiving a punishment. This broken water cycle is our penalty for years of robbing Mother Nature. Let’s not accept the new normal. Let’s resist the aridification of the SW-USA and the Colorado River Watershed. Let’s put the US Bureau of Reclamation to work within their assigned mission. Replacing the hydrologic cycle will solve the Great Salt Lake water level problem. One last thing, once the river is returned to full flow, let’s allow a constant flow into the Colorado River Delta, returning to Mother Nature her share. 

Image selected as logo image for Active Climate Rescue Initiative.
Proponent.

Move the Water! is the proposed initiative of Active Climate Rescue Initiative. Active Climate Rescue Initiative is founded to actively rescue our climate by encouraging positive climate change through water relocation into earth’s water deficit areas. Anyplace in the world where there is a dry depression is a place where there is a moisture deficit. These places are the key to reversing climate change. By infusing these places with water from an open flow inlet, moisture can be reintroduced into the local environment through hydrologic processes. Active Climate Rescue Initiative is a Michigan Non-Profit Corporation approved by the USA IRS as a 501.c.3 Public Charity.

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Footnotes:
  1. The 4,200 Project Guidebook, page 3 https://4200site.cdn.prismic.io/4200site/f10399e3-f226-4771-9724-db4b7ae0a71c_The+4_200+Project+Guidebook.pdf
  2. https://www.usbr.gov/main/about/mission.html

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