It is known that droughts have domino effects creating domino droughts which in this case has caused a mega-drought. This video predicts that the mega-drought will also have a domino effect of aridification and offers no hope. Just live with it. This blog article disagrees and points out the way to stop the mega-drought and return to our old normal.
The Domino Effect of America’s Megadrought presented by Bloomberg Originals and narrated by Kal Penn.
The video reports that [0:04] a 22+ year mega-drought is in place, yet [2:34] “we do have options.” It suggests [2:43] building more reservoirs, [2:57] desalination plants, and [3:26] conserving more. The video concludes that: [3:43] “The West Coast’s entire system to capture, store and distribute water was built on a different planet, a planet with predictable rainfall and snowpacks.”
[3:43] “That’s not the planet we live on anymore.”
Something has changed, but it is not the scientific weather prediction principles. The extensive [3:43] “system to capture, store and distribute water” has damaged the previous ecological balance. This change has altered the timeframe used to make these predictions, and the new predictions are dire. The video predicts that this mega-drought [4:00] “isn’t a temporary emergency. It’s a new normal.”
The previous ecological system is damaged.
The video reports change in two areas: A reduced snowpack in the Sierra Nevada mountains; and artificial reservoirs, like Lake Mead and Lake Powell, drying up. The video blames the mega-drought for both these changes.
It’s a mega-drought, we are doomed!
The video just accepts the mega-drought. It does not look deeper to try to see its origin. But instead, just accepting Global-Climate-Change as the prime actor in this mega-drought, let us do a root cause analysis. Let us look deeper.
Let it Snow!
The video says [0:54] “California’s biggest problem isn’t rain. It’s snow.” [1:04] “Half of the state’s precipitation falls between December and February and forms a huge snowpack in the Sierra Nevada mountains.” [1:27] “But over the past several decades, the West’s mountain snowpack has been shrinking. 23% has disappeared since 1955, and by the end of the century, it could lose as much as 79%.”
Source of the Snow.
Where do the Sierra Nevada mountains get their snow? The snow arrives from two directions.
1. Pacific Ocean.
Some of the moisture flows from the west, from the Pacific Ocean. This moisture is variable on the ocean conditions of La Nina and El Niño. That moisture is diminished by the Rain-Shadow effect, which strips much of the moisture out of the air, as it crosses the coastal mountain ranges, before it arrives at the Sierra Nevada mountains. Nothing has changed here. La Nina, El Niño, and the Rain-Shadow effect have all been constant and somewhat predictable for recorded history. The mega-drought seems to have no effect on these weather patterns.
2. Gulf of California
Some of the moisture flows from the south, from the Gulf of California. This moisture has been diminishing and is predictability less than in previous years. The mega-drought has dried up the moisture along this areal water path which can account for the snowpack loss of [1:27] “23% [that] has disappeared since 1955.” But is the mega-drought the cause or the symptom?
Lake Mead and Lake Powell drying up.
It is disastrous that Lake Mead and Lake Powell are drying up, their surface levels declining since 2000. They could be drying up because of over allocation of the basin resources, but since 2000 massive conservation efforts have been consistent, yet they still have declining levels. We again can blame the mega-drought for the diminishing surface levels, but is the mega-drought the cause or the symptom?
Where does the Colorado River water come from?
Lake Mead and Lake Powell obtain their water from the Colorado River. Reports are rampant that the flow of the Colorado River has diminished. The river originates in the Colorado mountain, along with 157 other named rivers. All have reduced flow rates since 2000. The Colorado mountains collect snow each winter which is the time-release water for the rivers, but the snowpack has been diminishing since 2000. Is the mega-drought the cause or the symptom?
Where does the Colorado mountain snowpack come from?
The snowpack in the Colorado mountains originates from at least two hydrologic cycles. The first from the north, through Canada, and this water cycle appears healthy and unchanged by the mega-drought. The second hydrologic cycle comes from the southeast, up from the Gulf of California, right out of the mega-drought zone. We can assume that this water cycle is diminished, which has caused the snowpack to diminish. We again can blame the mega-drought for the diminishing snowpack, but is the mega-drought the cause or the symptom?
The diminishing snowpack in both the Colorado and Seria Nevada mountains can be seen to be blamed on diminished moisture input from a southern hydrologic water cycle originating over the Gulf of California. It is apparent that this water cycle is delivering less moisture, but why?
The southern water cycle.
The southern water cycle is: 1. Gulf or California, MX > 2. Colorado River Delta, Baja, MX > 3. Laguna Salada, Baja, MX > 4. Salton Sea, CA, USA > 5. Seria Nevada Mountains, CA, USA > 6. Great Basin, USA > 7. Great Salt Lake, UT, USA > 8. Colorado Mountains, CO, USA > 9. Colorado River, USA & MX > 10. Colorado River Delta, Baja, MX. >
Dissecting the southern hydrologic cycle.
1. Gulf of California, MX.
The north end of this body of ocean water lies between two mountain ranges, which focus the prevailing winds to the north. The warm air off the gulf carries moisture north over the Colorado River Delta. The mega drought has not caused a change to the Gulf of California.
2. Colorado River Delta, Baja, MX
Since 1939 the Colorado River has mostly stopped flowing to the sea. This occurred for two reasons, one temporary and one which has been constant since 1939. The temporary one began in 1935 and lasted for 6 years while the Hoover Dam was being filled, creating Lake Mead. Compounding the drain on the river resources, in 1939 the Colorado River Aqueduct opened and began transporting massive amounts of water to Southern California. For 80+ years massive amounts of freshwater have been removed from the Colorado River Watershed to six major cities: Albuquerque, NM; Denver, CO; Los Angeles, CA; Salt Lake City, UT; San Diego, CA; Santa Fe, NM. Combined they remove approximately 1.5-million-acrefeet of freshwater each year. This is all water which no longer flows into the delta.
Local-Climate-Change.
Today the Colorado River Delta is dry. The river’s flow ends just before the water enters the Colorado River Delta, 60-miles north of the Gulf of California. The lack of water in the delta, over the last 80+ years has changed the Colorado River Delta from a 3,000-sq-mi, verdant, wet-land into a 3,000-sq-mi, brown dry desert. The delta’s features of large wet surface area, sunny hot atmospheric temperatures, strong northerly winds, and thirsty air, used to add large amounts of moisture into the atmosphere; into the hydrologic cycle. This local-climate-change has reduced the moisture fed into the hydrologic cycle, thus the water cycle has less water to carry northeast.
3. Laguna Salada, Baja, MX.
Technically Laguna Salada is in the Colorado River Delta, but this inland sea is a significant water feature, so it deserves its own mention. Laguna Salada was the last part of the delta to become desert, which it did in 1999. Thus, the water cycle has less water to carry northeast. Is it a coincidence that the mega-drought began in 2000?
4. Salton Sea, CA, USA.
The Salton Sea was formed in 1905 when water from the Colorado River accidentally flowed into the Salton Basin due to a breach in an irrigation canal. In the 1950s, the Salton Sea was a thriving tourist destination, often referred to as a desert oasis. The surface level of the Salton Sea began to diminish significantly in the 1970s and began to experience significant environmental. The reduced surface level contributed less moisture into the water cycle thus the water cycle has less water to carry north.
5. Seria Nevada Mountains, CA, USA
Consider this a branch of the hydrologic cycle delivering moisture to the Seria Nevada Mountains. The reduced snowpack may be a direct result of the diminishment in the southern water cycle.
6. Great Basin, USA.
The Great Basin is an interesting feature of the SW-USA. It is a watershed with no outlet, thus a basin. The Great Basin is large; it encroaches on 8 US States. It is full of salt deposits; think of the Bonneville Salt Falts and the Great Salt Lake, plus Death Valley is heavily salted. All this salt points to vast quantities of water, but the Great Basin is an arid land, so where did the water come from? Moisture from the west is blocked by mountains and the Rain-Shadow effect. Moisture from the north seems to end up in the Colorado Mountains instead of the Great Basin. The Great Basin receives most of its moisture from the south, but with the dry Colorado River Delta, dry Laguna Salada and shrinking Salton Sea, not much moisture is progressing north. The great Basin has become dryer over the past 30 years.
7. Great Salt Lake, UT, USA
The Great Salt Lake is officially part of the Great Basin. There are twenty saline lakes within the Great Basin, but the Great Salt Lake gets most of the headlines. It lays in the northeast corner of the Great Basin and its evaporated moisture travels into the Colorado Mountains. In the last decade there have been fears that the Great Salt Lake would turn to dust. As the lake surface diminishes, the amount of moisture sent northeast also diminishes, which means less snow for the Colorado Mountains.
8. Colorado Mountains, CO, USA.
The Colorado Mountains supplies the moisture which begin 158 named rivers. It is apparent that the flow of all these rivers has diminished in the past couple of decades. The common cry is that it Global-Climate-Change is the root cause. This video blames the mega-drought, but is the mega-drought the cause or the symptom?
9. Colorado River, USA & Baja, MX.
Historically the Colorado River is accredited with 16-million-acrefeet of flow. In recent years the river is providing more like 14 or 15-million-acrefeet of freshwater, and some of the projections are showing it could go down to 9-million-acrefeet. Approximately, 1/3 of the river flow goes to California, 1/3 of the flow goes to Mexico, and the last 1/3 goes to other cities and farming, leaving the river dry 60 miles north of its historic outlet.
1. Back to the delta.
There is an unwritten natural law which states that: “Removing large quantities of freshwater from its watershed will create unintended consequences; usually negative.” Draining the river dry, leaving no moisture for the delta is a problem. We have taken too much from nature and have not respected the resource. The mega-drought is the unintended consequence.
The review of the data shows that the most likely cause of the mega-drought is the overuse of the Colorado River freshwater leaving its delta a desert and thus breaking the water cycle. So, can this be fixed?
Let’s fix the problem.
There are two ways to fix the problem.
1. Stop taking freshwater out of the watershed.
I do not think this will happen because approximately 40-million people rely on that freshwater for life and livelihood. I think they would complain. To replace this freshwater from alternate sources would be massively expensive.
2. Repair/Replace the water cycle.
To replace the lost moisture input, we must replicate the lost water cycle. Can humans replicate a water cycle? This sounds like a big task; nigh on to impossible. Well, if man can break it, he should be able to fix it. Yes, humans can fix it, and it is a viable option. The cost of constructing, operating, and maintaining this project is considerable, but it can be collected from a water-use-fee imposed on those who broke the water cycle, the users of Colorado River water, as they continue to move water out of the watershed.
Because this operation spans multiple US states, it must be coordinated by the US government. Fortunately, the government already has an agency in place for this: The US Bureau of Reclamation. This type of project is fully within their mission: “The mission of the Bureau of Reclamation is to manage, develop, and protect water and related resources in an environmentally and economically sound manner in the interest of the American public.”
The plan to replace the hydrologic cycle.
1. Colorado River Delta > Laguna Salada.
The plan begins here, with some agreement from Mexico, the flow of the Coyote Canal will be reversed. The Coyote Canal was installed as an overflow path for Laguna Salada. Today, with Laguna Salada being dry, overflow is not a problem. Refilling Laguna Salada will provide a shallow, warm body of saltwater, with a large surface area, to be an atmosphere moisture generator for the water cycle. By increasing the length of Coyote Canal, moisture can reach more parts of the desert delta on its way to Laguna Salada, thus providing hydration to more land, and more opportunity to infuse the atmosphere with moisture.
2. Laguna Salada > Salton Sea.
The Coyote Canal can be extended to the Salton Sea. This will be a new 60-mile-long metered-flow canal which must pass through a 150-foot hill. By extending the Coyote Canal past Laguna Salada and into the Salton Sea, Laguna Salada water salinity will be kept stable near the ocean salinity level.
3. Salton Sea > Great Basin.
The surface level of the Salton Sea can be maintained at its 1950s level by the metered flow of the Coyote Canal. The saltwater entering the Salton Sea will reduce the salinity of the Salton Sea. Over time the salinity and agricultural pollution of the Salton Sea will be reduced by the flowthrough of water into the Great Basin. At the same time the Salton Sea will once again become a place for people to work and play.
A side trip.
At this point we consider that the increased moisture in the Colorado River Delta, the refilled Laguan Salada, and increased surface level of Salton Sea will return some moisture in this hydrologic cycle. Some of this will be directed toward the Seria Nevada mountains. Hopefully enough to return the snowpack to its pre-1955 normal. Predicting water cycle activity is difficult because of the many factors involved; regardless, by returning the moisture, some improvement will occur, and some is better than none.
4. Great Basin > Great Salt Lake.
The Salton Sea water pumped into the Great Basin will reside in a currently dry depression, where natural processes take over. No human hands are needed for evaporation to remove freshwater into the atmosphere and leave behind the salt and pollutants. The natural processes of the water cycle within the Great Basin will move the freshwater around and deposit it into the Great Salt Lake. The surface level of the Great Salt Lake is the gauge which will determine the amount of water imported into the Great Basin.
5. Great Salt Lake > Colorado Mountains.
No human hands are needed for this part. By returning the moisture into the Great Basin and the Great Salt Lake, the original hydrologic cycle will be restored. The Colorado Mountains will be receiving enough moisture to return full flow to all 158 named rivers originating in those mountains.
Conclusion.
We cannot rob Mother Nature without receiving a punishment. This broken water cycle is our penalty for years of robbing Mother Nature. Let’s not accept the new normal. Let’s resist the aridification of the SW-USA and the Colorado River Watershed. Let’s put the US Bureau of Reclamation to work within their assigned mission. One last thing, once the river is returned to full flow, let’s allow a constant flow into the Colorado River Delta, returning to Mother Nature her share.
Proponent.
Move the Water! is the proposed initiative of Active Climate Rescue Initiative. Active Climate Rescue Initiative is founded to actively rescue our climate by encouraging positive climate change through water relocation into earth’s water deficit areas. Anyplace in the world where there is a dry depression is a place where there is a moisture deficit. These places are the key to reversing climate change. By infusing these places with water from an open flow inlet, moisture can be reintroduced into the local environment through hydrologic processes. Active Climate Rescue Initiative is a Michigan Non-Profit Corporation approved by the USA IRS as a 501.c.3 Public Charity.
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